NFL Week 11 is here, and it’s a bittersweet time for the 2024 season. The playoffs are just around the corner, and teams are entering the “do or die” mode to make the playoffs or secure home-field advantage. There are few things in this world that are as both sad and exciting as the NFL playoffs. Arguably the best time of the year, but tragically, it marks the end of the football season. Time is inevitable, however, and the end of the year is coming, whether we like it or not. With that, let’s run through what the playoffs might look like, and consider some dark horse candidates who could emerge before the season’s end.
Certainly, none of us are surprised at the teams that are atop the AFC and NFC standings. Familiar names like the Chiefs, Bills, Eagles, Lions, Vikings, Ravens, etc., all hold a dominant and insurmountable chance to make the playoffs. For these teams, it’s more about gunning for the #1 seed and home-field advantage than actually making it to New Year’s football.
Starting with the NFC, the Detroit Lions, in my opinion, have the best chance to secure the #1 seed and ensure the NFC playoffs run through Motor City. I’m sure I’m not alone in this opinion, as the Lions have a relatively favorable schedule remaining, with 4 out of 8 remaining games being considered “difficult”. The Eagles are next in line, with Philadelphia facing a relatively difficult stretch coming up, with about 5 out of 8 of their remaining games being objectively considered difficult. Minnesota would be third on my list, as their success will be inversely related to the Lions’. I’ll simplify things by saying that I think whoever wins the NFC North will control the #1 seed.
Some real dark horses in the NFC, in my opinion, are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Arizona Cardinals. Baker Mayfield and the Bucs are playing very strong football, despite losing their two top receivers, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. When healthy, the Bucs were able to defeat both the Lions and the Eagles, and they even managed to easily handle Jayden Daniels and the Commanders early in the season. When banged up, the Bucs suffered two heartbreaking away games against the Chiefs and the 49ers, not exactly pushovers. Lastly, they have a very favorable remaining schedule, with only 1 out of 7 games being objectively difficult. I could see Baker and company giving teams a run for their money this postseason.
The Cardinals, I don’t see being quite as chippy as the Bucs, but they’re not far off at all. Kyler Murray is playing out of his mind (I was very wrong about him this year), and they have many hard-nosed pieces on this team. With a strong run game led by James Conner, a stout defense, a stellar tight end in Trey McBride, and a rookie phenom in Marvin Harrison Jr., the Cardinals are poised to surprise people towards the end of the year. I could 100% see them surprising the league and finishing atop the NFC West this year. It’s a difficult feat, but if they can win their last few divisional games, they will have done it. Regardless, I see this team having a chippy playoff run.
Now moving to the AFC, where a similar situation to the NFC exists. The Chiefs currently have a very strong foothold on the #1 seed. Including the Bills game this week, they have 5 out of 8 tough games remaining. These guys actually have a chance to finish the season undefeated, but I don’t see it happening. Week 11 could set something in motion that I don’t think anybody anticipated. If the Steelers can beat the Ravens, I think something miraculous will happen. If the team from Steel City proves to the world in back-to-back weeks that they are that good, I am picking them to be the #1 seed in the AFC this year. All that will rely on is finishing the season with the same record as the Chiefs and beating them head-to-head on Christmas Day. Now, I think the most likely scenario where this happens would be the Steelers dropping a few games but winning the North, and the Chiefs doing the same in their final 8, but simply losing the head-to-head with Pittsburgh. Both of these teams finishing with 3-4 losses is what I have in mind.
Now, things begin to get really crazy when you throw the Bills into the mix. They also only have two losses, with a huge head-to-head against the Chiefs this Sunday. If the Bills win this game, they might have the edge in the conference, despite a difficult incoming stretch against NFC opponents. The AFC playoff picture is a nightmare to predict, but I think the obvious teams will prevail, with the exception of my aforementioned scenario. My dark horse pick for the AFC is, as always, the Cincinnati Bengals. I see them finishing the season at either 9-8 or 10-7 and sneaking into the wildcard. If this happens, I anticipate a run similar to 2021. Expect them to beat your favorite team in the playoffs until, of course, they play the Chiefs. Then, I think we’ll see a coin flip.
Regardless if any of my predictions come true, the playoffs this year will be a nail-biter. If you have a dog in the race, I tip my cap to you and wish you the best of luck. One city is going to be smiling in early February, and the rest will set their sights on 2025.
– Tyler S @twoandahalfvirgins